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Goals and chance creation

Last season, Hearts finished third in the league in terms of total xG of chances created (excluding penalties), trailing only the Glasgow clubs. They had a total xG of 46.4 across 38 Premier League games.

They outperformed expectations, scoring 52 times, but neither figure is sufficient for Hearts’ goals. Hibernian scored ten more league goals in the 2024/25 Premiership, St Mirren scored one more, and Dundee scored five more.

In the radar below, Hearts (red) almost exactly match the league average in some of the key metrics used to measure attacking performance.

They also attempted more shots and made more passes than anyone else, with the exception of the obvious two. However, when it comes to total clear shots on goal, Hearts drop to seventh.

They are also below average in terms of counter-attacking shots, which are usually taken when the opposing team is out of position in some way.

In conclusion, this confirms what Hearts fans saw without the use of stats: struggles to break down densely packed defences, insufficient good chances created, and insufficient created chances scored.

After a disastrous start to last season, with only four goals in their first seven league games, there was an initial improvement under Steven Naismith’s replacement, Neil Critchley.

The Englishman made Hearts a better pressing team, attacking opponents from the start. More goals were scored, but they rarely scored enough while leading. Over time, ponderous possession returned, and goals dried up as the stakes rose near the end of the season.

Early signs in this department this season are encouraging, owing to the fact that goals are now being scored all over the pitch.

Sharing the goals around

The main issue in 2024/25 was twofold: Lawrence Shankland fell short of his sensational form from the previous two seasons, and no one else stepped up to score when he was struggling.

It took the captain until the 96th minute of the 10th game of the season to open his account. By that point, only Frankie Kent, Yutaro Oda, and Craig Halkett had scored once each.

Simply put, other players must share the goal-scoring burden while Shankland hopes to rediscover some of the magic that has propelled him to legendary status.

Again, progress has been made in this area, as evidenced by the graph below. However, if they do not carry it over into the league season, it will all be for nothing.

Hearts scored four goals in each of their Premier Sports Cup Group E games. There were nine different scorers.

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Passing

As previously stated, too much possession in front of the opposition was an issue, and based on the eye test in the games so far, there has been much less of it under McInnes.

Since his first game in charge, Hearts have sought to move the ball forward more quickly, whether by putting dangermen on the ball or looking for a longer pass.

There is enough ability in the squad to maintain possession, there is more pace in the team, and they have certainly varied their approach to matches thus far.

But, ultimately, and regardless of how it is done, it is about making more positive passes, getting wingers on the ball to isolate defenders, and putting more balls into the box.

To achieve this, Hearts must improve in three areas from last season: passing, dribbling, and crossing. McInnes is adaptable in terms of tactics, instead relying on specific principles.

Part of that flexibility is adapting to whatever resources he has at his disposal. His resources at Kilmarnock last season will be different from those at Hearts now, for example. With that caveat in mind, let’s compare the two teams’ styles from last season.

Taking a few snapshots, the images below show where the ball travels from a specific area of the pitch (represented by the ball icon).

Looking at the first, we can see that Hearts (right image) were more likely to opt for a safer pass in the right-back area. In contrast, Kilmarnock were more likely to get the ball into the channel.

The differences in the following are more minor, but we can see that Kilmarnock was more likely to pass the ball to their forwards or wide men from the centre of the pitch.

McInnes frequently played with a back three at Kilmarnock, with wingers Danny Armstrong and Matty Kennedy on either side. In both comparisons, Hearts made more passes in the selected zones. Significantly lower: 760 versus 433.

McInnes stated after the win over Hamilton Academical last month that wingbacks Christian Borchgrevink and Alan Forrest were instructed to be “ball-carriers”.

Crossing

Hearts had a lower percentage of crosses into the box than the league average. They fall even further down the table when it comes to successful crosses.

Based on what McInnes has said and done so far, expect Hearts to get the ball to their wingers more quickly, as well as more crosses and cutbacks into the box.

The head coach prioritised wide-area improvement from the start. He wants players in those positions who can work in tight spaces while feeding strikers. A large portion of the transfer business has been concentrated in this area.

Dribbling

Similarly, getting the ball past opponents is an area where Hearts can improve. Last season, they ranked sixth in the number of dribbles attempted and third in terms of successful dribbles.

Hearts ranked last in completed dribbles (those that result in a successful action such as a cross or a shot).

With a desire to play with width and pace, McInnes’ signings of Sabah Kejota and Landry Kabore, in addition to Alexandros Kyziridis, make sense. All have direct possession.

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