Charlton Athletic vs Leyton Orient: Opta Supercomputer League One Play-Off Final Prediction.

Our preview and prediction for Charlton Athletic vs Leyton Orient in the League One play-off final at Wembley Stadium on Sunday. Who will get promoted to the Championship?

Charlton Athletic vs Leyton Orient Stats: Key insights.

The Opta supercomputer predicts Charlton Athletic to win 53.7% of simulations and 40.6% within 90 minutes.
Including the play-offs, only Leyton Orient’s Charlie Kelman (23) has more League One goals than Charlton’s Matty Godden (19).
Charlton won both regular-season League One meetings with Orient, with all three goals coming in second-half stoppage time.

Two clubs separated by the Thames and approximately a 20-minute drive travel to Wembley Stadium to determine who will play football in the Championship next season.

Charlton Athletic will face Leyton Orient in the third Football League play-off final between two London-based teams, following Crystal Palace’s victory over West Ham in 2003-04 and Fulham’s victory over Brentford in 2019-20 (both in the second tier).

The Addicks will fancy their chances if they rely on the club’s track record of such occasions. Charlton has won each of their three play-off finals, including the 1986-87 relegation play-off final against Leeds United, which secured their top-flight survival (also 1997-98 and 2018-19), giving them the joint-best 100% success rate on such occasions (with Peterborough United).

Leyton Orient, on the other hand, lacks comparable play-off victories to draw inspiration from. Since defeating Wrexham over two legs in the 1988-89 fourth-tier play-offs, Orient has lost their last three play-off finals, the most recent being a penalty shootout loss to Rotherham United in the 2013-14 League One final.

Nathan Jones, Charlton’s manager, was overjoyed after defeating Wycombe Wanderers in the semi-finals and will be determined to ensure his team’s success. After a 0-0 draw in the first leg and a tense match at the Valley, it took a lot of effort to defeat Mike Dodds’ team. Finally, Matty Godden’s late goal sealed the victory.

Godden scored his 19th League One goal of the season, trailing only Leyton Orient’s Charlie Kelman (23). He has only scored 20 goals in an EFL season once before, for Stevenage in League Two in 2016-17.

Kelman was instrumental in Orient’s semi-final victory over Stockport County, scoring twice in the first leg at Brisbane Road. However, one of Kelman’s goals was awarded despite being several yards offside when Omar Beckles flicked the ball to him. He also fired in a late penalty to make it 2-2.

Ollie O’Neill put Orient ahead in the return leg at Edgeley Park, but Isaac Olaofe equalised, leading to a penalty shootout. Richie Wellens’ team won 4-1 in a shootout after O’s goalkeeper Josh Keeley saved Jack Diamond’s shot and Ryan Rydel hit the post for the hosts. Ethan Galbraith sealed the victory.

Leyton Orient have been effective in front of goal this season. They have scored 94 EFL goals, trailing only Birmingham City (111), Peterborough United (98), and Leeds United (96) in total. It is the most goals scored by the O’s in a Football League season since 2013-14 (104), though that may not be a good omen given that they lost the League One play-off final that year.

Charlton has a strong record at Wembley Stadium, having won each of their last three major finals there, beginning with the 1947 FA Cup final, which they defeated Burnley 1-0. Their previous two visits to the national stadium resulted in play-off victories over Sunderland, first in 1997-98 (7-6 on penalties in the second tier) and again in 2018-19 (2-1 in the third tier).

Leyton Orient won their first two games at Wembley Stadium, defeating Brentford and Southend United in 1930 while in the Third Division South, but they have gone winless in their last three visits (D1, L2). Two of those were Football League play-off finals, where they lost 1-0 to Scunthorpe United in 1998-99 and on penalties to Rotherham after a 2-2 draw in 2013-14.

Head to Head: Charlton Athletic vs. Leyton Orient

These two have met three times this season, with each meeting ending in a stoppage-time victory.

Charlton won both league games. Seven teams have gone into a League One play-off final having done the double over their opponents and five have won promotion, though the most recent team did lose (Barnsley vs Sheffield Wednesday in 2022-23).

In August, the Addicks won 1-0 at the Valley thanks to Luke Berry’s goal in the 92nd minute.

The return game at Brisbane Road in March was even more dramatic, with Leyton Orient leading in second-half stoppage time thanks to Jordan Brown’s spectacular long-range goal. However, two almost identical headers from corners thwarted them. Macaulay Gillesphey equalised in the 92nd minute with a far-post nod, followed by Kayne Ramsay in the 97th.

That may not have come as a surprise, given that Charlton scored the most stoppage-time goals in the EFL in 2024-25 (10, tied with Leeds).

However, Wellens’ men defeated the Addicks in the EFL Trophy in December, thanks to two stoppage-time goals. In the 93rd minute, Kelman gave Orient the lead at the Valley. Substitute Dan Agyei then made it 2-0 with a strong run.

Charlton Athletic vs Leyton Orient Prediction:

The Opta supercomputer makes this a close call, but Charlton Athletic has the edge, winning within 90 minutes in 40.6% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations.

Leyton Orient won in normal time in 32.9% of the games, while the remaining 26.5% went to extra time (and possibly penalties).

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