11 things Hearts learned from a trying 2024/25 season.
On Sunday, May 18, at 4.57pm, Dan McFarlane blew the final whistle at Rugby Park. The Heart of Midlothian faithful had eagerly anticipated this moment. The 2024/25 season was over. The supporters could now focus on the appointment of a new coach, the summer transfer window, and the upcoming season.
Less than 20 hours later, a new era began. Derek McInnes was appointed as the club’s new manager, signing a four-year contract.There was little time for reflection, which was probably for the best because many people simply wanted to forget about the 24/25 campaign and never bring it up again. There were several difficult and exhausting moments, from pre-season to the final weeks of the season.
For those of us who enjoy reflecting on difficult times (for those who do not, scroll a little further down the page):
Preseason defeats to Fleetwood Town and Leyton Orient.
Dundee suffered a first-half collapse in the second game.
Championship Falkirk suffered a League Cup defeat.
A laboured performance at home against Viktoria Plzen in the Europa League play-off.
The worst beginning to a season ever
Losing 1-0 to a Kilmarnock team that played around 80 minutes with 10 men.
Despite winning the first two games and defeating the competition’s worst team at Tynecastle Park, they were unable to advance to the Conference League knockout stages.
Failing to beat Ross County despite leading 2-0 in the 96th minute
Failure to Win a Derby
Failing to defeat Aberdeen in four games where Hearts were arguably the better side in each
Rangers suffered defeats against Hibs, Motherwell, Queen’s Park, Aberdeen, Kilmarnock, and St Mirren twice.
Failing to defeat Motherwell or Dundee United to reach the top six, and not scoring while doing so.
That’s before we get into the various missed opportunities along the way. When you see everything written down, all you can do is laugh. Or cry. Or you want to break the device you’re reading on.
During the appointment, McInnes discusses the previous season and the need to understand the reasons for its outcomes.
“There’s good players here and players who I’m sure are frustrated that the season’s not given them everything they wanted,” explained the coach. “It’s up to me and the players to find out why it wasn’t as fulfilling as we’d hoped and to make sure that the season’s a lot different next season.”
So, what can we conclude from the previous season? What can we learn from it?
Surprising numbers
Hearts underperformed.
No s**t, Sherlock; they finished in the bottom six.
What we mean is that they delivered less than the underlying data suggested.
Rewind twelve months. A performance review was conducted prior to forming a partnership with Jamestown Analytics and collaborating with Tony Bloom. Hearts outperformed, finishing third at a canter under Steven Naismith. Those underlying numbers suggested that the team was not as dominant as it appeared on the pitch, which is where it matters most.
Take expected goals as an example. Aberdeen and Hibs were expected to score more than Hearts. In terms of expected goals conceded, Hearts finished in the bottom half, with Aberdeen, Hibs, St Mirren, Kilmarnock, and Motherwell all expected to concede fewer.
The best example of overperformance was set pieces. No team conceded as few as Hearts. Yet, the expected numbers show that Hearts should have conceded the second most.
Now, this season has passed. Hearts had the third best record in terms of expected goals scored and conceded. Only the Old Firm was expected to have scored more and conceded less.
These are the factors that clubs and analysts consider. It demonstrates the nature of fine margins in football, as well as luck. However, such aspects are not what fans want to hear over the course of a full season, especially given the difficulties outlined above.
Over-reliance on Shankland
Following on from the previous section, this past season truly demonstrated the importance of Lawrence Shankland and his goals. Again, hardly groundbreaking insight.
Hearts made a mistake in not signing another striker last summer. Naismith thought he had enough in Liam Boyce, Kenneth Vargas, James Wilson and Musa Drammeh as a support system.
Everyone expected Vargas to take the next step after his debut season, but the next step was backwards. Boyce only became effective in the weeks before his departure. Wilson’s breakthrough came after Naismith left, and Musa barely played through the middle.
To keep Shankland, Hearts needs more options. Elton Kabangu, who joined in January, can contribute but should be paired with another striker rather than playing in a diamond formation. Wilson will benefit even more from his experience this season. But at least one more will be needed.
Shankland scored exactly the number of goals expected of him based on the metrics. However, he is the type of striker with a variety of finishing skills and talent who should outperform his expectations, as he did last season.
But this season, when he struggled, few players stepped up to fill the void.
Only Shankland, Kabangu, and Wilson have scored more league goals than own goals for Hearts this season.
Simplicity is best
Speaking with Steven Naismith earlier this year, he reflected on a game early in the season, which could be viewed as a key staging post in the worst start to a season, eventually leading to his removal as head coach.
“For instance, the team I selected, Dundee away, for me, that was a big risk to take,” he told me. “If we get a good result, we’ll be flying because of the first [Rangers draw] and the second.” I could have gone a little safer.”
Hearts had played well and should have defeated Rangers in the season’s first game at Tynecastle Park. After effectively playing 4-4-2, he switched to a 3-4-1-2 formation with Barrie McKay moving from left to No.10 position. It resulted in a disastrous first half at Dens Park.
Fast forward to Neil Critchley’s spell. Hearts initially improved under the English manager, but struggled to stay in the top six after the split. During that time, he stuck with a diamond shape, which annoyed fans. The low point was starting Lawrence Shankland on the bench in a must-win game at Fir Park and then bringing him on at halftime.
Both times Liam Fox took over as interim head coach, he went back to basics and used a formation that suited the majority of the players, particularly the best.
In Scottish football, there’s no need to reinvent the wheel or get too cute, especially when Hearts face lower-level opposition. A clear message, with players playing in their strongest positions.
Chaos versus control
This is more opinion than actual fact, but Hearts are a more entertaining team to watch when they don’t dominate possession. Once more, the team had the third-highest possession share in the league with 54 per cent.
Possession share increases to 59% during home games, excluding those against Celtic and Rangers.
When Hearts are in ‘control’ at Tynecastle, the opposition appears to be more at ease. However, chaos thrives at Tynecastle.
It was encouraging to hear McInnes discuss making teams uncomfortable in Gorgie. That begins with not playing the game in front of teams that are willing to give up possession.
Read more on sportupdates.co.uk
Leave a Reply