Championship: Who needs what on the final day?
With the pendulum swinging back and forth and back again, the Championship has once again produced an amazing season of drama and excitement. And once more. And once more.
With 12 teams still having a lot to play for, the title, two play-off spots, and, realistically, one relegation berth are still up for grabs going into the final-day games (all with 12:30 BST kickoffs).
Since there is something at risk in half of the divide, we have examined the various permutations. It would be beneficial to begin at the bottom and work our way up.
And who’s involved? Plymouth Argyle, Luton Town, Hull City, Preston North End, Derby County, and Stoke City
Who are they pretending to be? Leeds United (h)
What is required of them? Unless there is a footballing miracle, the Pilgrims are essentially already defeated.
To reverse a 14-goal run, Miron Muslic’s team must defeat title-chasing Leeds handily and hope Luton suffers a crushing setback at West Bromwich Albion. Additionally, Hull would have to lose at Portsmouth.
Who are they pretending to be? Portsmouth (a)
What is required of them? If Hull City loses at Portsmouth, they’re out, but they still have control over their destiny. Their easiest option to remain up is to win; they will undoubtedly finish higher than either Derby or Stoke, who face each other, or at the very least, outperform one of Luton or Preston.
Hull would survive with a higher goal differential than the Hatters or Lilywhites if the Tigers draw and they lose.
If Luton and Preston win and the Rams lose to Stoke by three goals, Ruben Selles’ team may finish above Derby on goal differential.
Another improbable situation is that if the Rams lose by two goals and the Tigers draw 6-6, Hull might end higher than Derby in terms of goals scored. In the equally improbable situation where Derby loses by two and Hull draws 5-5, the Rams would remain in the lead due to their superior head-to-head record.
Only if Hull wins and the Potters lose can they finish higher than Stoke.
Who are they pretending to be? Albion West Bromwich (a)
What is required of them? If they defeat Hull or win at West Bromwich Albion, Luton will remain up.
The Hatters would only need to avoid an improbable 14-goal swing in favor of Argyle to survive if Plymouth won and Luton and Hull both lost.
In the event that Matt Bloomfield’s team does not win three points at The Hawthorns, things become a little more tricky.
Luton must match Hull’s performance to stay in the top spot if they avoid losing. Luton would also remain up if they beat either Derby or Preston, regardless of Hull’s outcome.
What would happen if Derby, Preston, and Hull all prevailed? In order to finish above Stoke and escape the drop, Luton would then, in all likelihood, need to win themselves.
In the odd event that either of the following occurs, they might also draw in that scenario and remain up:
Stoke ends up with a worse goal differential than Luton after losing by six goals.
Despite losing 5-0 and drawing 3-3 with Albion, Stoke has a stronger head-to-head record and ties on goal differential and goals scored.
Luton scores at least four goals (4-4, 5-5, etc.) to keep up with the goals scored after Stoke loses 5-0.
Who are they pretending to be? City of Bristol (a)
- What is required of them? Preston, like Luton, will remain up whether they defeat Hull or win at Bristol City.
If not, the Lilywhites must either improve on one of Derby’s or Stoke’s results, or match one of Luton’s or Hull’s to avoid the drop.
As long as Paul Heckingbottom’s team avoids the improbable situation of losing by 13 goals and the Hatters losing by one, or losing by 14 goals and the Hatters losing by two, and so on, they will survive on goal differential even if Preston and Luton both lose and Hull win.
In order for the Lilywhites to stay up on goal differential, Derby would need to lose by four goals more than themselves assuming both Hull and Luton avoid defeat and Preston lose (e.g. Derby 0-5 Stoke, Bristol City 1-0 Preston).
If Derby loses by four goals and Preston loses by one, the Lilywhites would need to make sure they score three more goals than Derby in order to stay ahead of Derby in goals scored (e.g. Derby 0-4 Stoke, Bristol City 4-3 Preston). This is another improbable way to escape defeat if Preston loses and Hull and Luton also escape defeat.
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