What does Nola need to do to turn around rough season?

The Phillies had hoped Aaron Nola would rebound from a rough 2025 season, but the veteran right-hander has continued to struggle this year.

In Sunday’s outing against the White Sox, Nola gave up five runs on six hits and four walks over just 4 1/3 innings. Through 13 starts this season, his ERA sits at 5.86 only marginally better than the 6.01 mark he posted during an injury-plagued 2025 campaign.

Over the offseason, MLB explored how Nola might get back on track in 2026. Aside from staying healthy he hasn’t missed a turn in the rotation little has gone as planned. His four-seam fastball continues to get hammered, ranking among MLB’s least effective pitches, and his ground-ball rate remains merely average.

Is a midseason turnaround possible? Yes, but it would require Nola to make corrections almost immediately, starting with his four-seamer, which has been his biggest issue in 2026.

Even though he’s throwing his fastball slightly harder than last year (92.1 mph vs. 91.9 mph), the results have worsened. Opponents are 24-for-59 (.407) against the pitch, and as of Wednesday, that’s the fourth-highest batting average among all qualifying pitches in the majors, along with the third-highest slugging percentage (.864).

Nola has tried to mitigate the damage by using the fastball less. His knuckle curve remains highly effective (.194 average, .296 slugging) and has become his primary pitch at 34.2% usage, while his four-seamer usage has dropped to 25.0%. Last season, the fastball was his most frequently used pitch at 30.3%.

Against the White Sox, Nola threw 37 knuckle curves compared to just 17 four-seamers, yet three of the six hits he allowed came off the fastball in only five at-bats. He blamed his inability to work ahead in counts for the short outing.

“I didn’t really get ahead today, and they worked me into pretty deep counts, so that just kind of makes it harder,” Nola said. “They see more pitches, and there’s room for mistakes.”

Those mistakes have been more frequent in 2026, a season in which Nola has posted a career-worst 1.45 WHIP and a 23.7% strikeout rate his lowest since his rookie year in 2015.

This story was adapted from the Phillies Beat newsletter. To read the full edition, click here. And subscribe to receive it regularly in your inbox. MLB’s Theo DeRosa wrote this piece.

The Phillies were counting on a bounce-back from Aaron Nola after a disappointing 2025, but it’s been more of the same for the veteran righty.

Following a rough outing Sunday against the White Sox five runs on six hits and four walks in 4 1/3 innings Nola now has a 5.86 ERA over 13 starts this season, barely an improvement over his 6.01 ERA during an injury-marred 2025.

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During the offseason, MLB examined how Nola could right the ship in 2026, but aside from staying healthy (he’s made every start), those adjustments haven’t materialized. His four-seamer is getting hit even harder and remains one of the least effective pitches in the majors, while his ground-ball rate is still unremarkable.

Is there hope for a midseason rebound? Yes, but Nola would need to fix several issues right away, starting with his four-seamer his biggest problem in 2026.

Despite throwing his fastball slightly harder than last season (92.1 mph vs. 91.9 mph), Nola is seeing worse results, allowing 24 hits in 59 at-bats (.407). Entering Wednesday, that’s the fourth-highest average among all qualifying MLB pitches and the third-highest slugging percentage (.864).

Nola has tried to reduce damage by throwing the pitch less often. His knuckle curve remains very effective (.194 BA, .296 SLG) and has become his go-to pitch at 34.2% usage, while his four-seamer usage has dropped to 25.0%. Last season, the fastball was his most-used pitch at 30.3%.

Against the White Sox, Nola threw 37 knuckle curves versus only 17 four-seamers, but three of the six hits he allowed came off the fastball (in just five at-bats). He said falling behind in counts hurt him in the abbreviated outing.

“I didn’t really get ahead today, and they worked me into pretty deep counts, so that just kind of makes it harder,” Nola said. “They see more pitches, and there’s room for mistakes.”

Those mistakes have been more frequent in 2026, a year in which Nola has recorded a career-high 1.45 WHIP and a 23.7% strikeout rate his lowest since his debut season in 2015.

Aaron Nola strikes out four over 4 1/3 innings
June 7, 2026 · 0:38

Statcast data largely supports his struggles. Although his 4.32 expected ERA suggests some better luck may be coming, his .260 expected batting average, .436 expected slugging, and .326 expected wOBA are all career worsts.

Additionally, Nola’s 7.7% walk rate is his highest since 2020 (8.0%). The new ABS system may be partly to blame, as Nola isn’t getting as many borderline calls as he once did.

That was evident Sunday when Chicago’s Colson Montgomery challenged a 3-2 called strike in the fifth inning, got the call overturned, and later scored.

“I feel like I knew if he challenged that pitch, it was going to be a ball,” Nola said. “It’s obviously a close pitch right there good challenge. But I just kind of feel like I’ve thrown enough of those pitches now that they call strikes and they challenge, and it’s a ball.”

The poor start followed two solid outings against the Padres. On May 26 in San Diego, Nola allowed two runs over six innings with five strikeouts, and on June 2 in Philadelphia, he fanned eight over five innings of two-run ball.

Nola has shown flashes elsewhere, including a six-inning scoreless start on May 4 in Miami. Even with his fastball getting hammered, his other pitches remain difficult to square up: hitters are just 3-for-30 (.115) with no extra-base hits against his changeup.

One of Nola’s strengths is his diverse arsenal. Even his least-used pitch, the cutter, has a 9.3% usage rate. With his curveball, changeup, and three different fastballs, it’s hard for hitters to predict what’s coming next.

“With Noles, I think he matches up good with anybody if he’s doing his thing,” Phillies manager Don Mattingly said. “If he’s locating and using all his pitches and able to use his mix, he matches up with anybody.”

More often than not in 2026, that hasn’t been the case for Nola. But the Phillies could use another reliable starter, and Nola could still fill that role if he can turn things around.