On Tuesday afternoon, the Phillies made a few minor league roster moves that mostly felt like shuffling deck chairs on the Titanic moving a pitcher here, a batter there. But amid the routine adjustments, they quietly added a minor league signing that at least carried a hint of curiosity.
You might recognize the name. Selected by the Cardinals in the 2016 draft, Carlson climbed through St. Louis’s system as a top prospect and a presumed piece of their future. He debuted during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season nothing flashy with the bat, but nothing shameful either. The next year, he hit .266/.343/.437 with 18 home runs and 65 RBIs, looking like a legitimate long-term piece in the Cardinals’ outfield.
Since then, it’s been a steady decline. He hasn’t come close to matching those numbers, whether due to poor performance or injuries hamstring, ankle, oblique, shoulder, thumb. After St. Louis traded him at the 2024 deadline, Carlson began the drifting, non-tendered journey many former top prospects experience. He’s landed with the Rays, then the Orioles, and this spring with the Cubs. His release from Chicago brought him to the Phillies, where he’ll hopefully add outfield depth in Lehigh Valley.
That raises the real question: is Carlson interesting for any reason beyond being a warm body in the outfield?
Short answer: no.
Longer, more detailed answer: no, not really.
At the plate, Carlson’s value lies in a patient eye walk rates in the 8–10% range, rarely chasing outside the zone. Patience is his best tool. Pair that with power on contact, even with below-average corner defense, and you have something to work with. But that power hasn’t reappeared at the MLB level. His slugging has dropped every season, and the underlying power indicators have dipped too.
He simply doesn’t square the ball up enough to matter. Pitchers have caught on, throwing more strikes as his career has progressed, knowing that even if he makes contact, it’s not leaving the park.
(Though he does pull the ball in the air a lot.)
Clearly, the team has outfield depth issues. Felix Reyes needs more minor league seasoning. But there’s no one obvious to replace what he currently offers. Maybe they bring back Otto Kemp, or give Carlson a few games to get into shape before giving him a shot.
But if you’re hoping for a sneaky minor league signing that pays big dividends, this probably isn’t it.
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