When it comes to the top of the rotation, the Philadelphia Phillies might boast the most impressive group of arms in baseball. With Christopher Sánchez emerging as a Cy Young frontrunner, the team can counter with a formidable trio consisting of their ace lefty, Zack Wheeler, and Jesús Luzardo.
That core should be enough to prevail against most opponents, though surviving the postseason requires at least four starters. Aaron Nola currently slots in as the No. 4 by default, but his recent struggles make him difficult to trust in high-stakes, win-or-go-home games.
Even if Nola rebounds, the Phillies remain alarmingly short on pitching depth. At this stage, Andrew Painter and Alan Rangel are the only healthy starters on the 40-man roster a frightening reality given the injury histories of the pitchers mentioned above.
This makes Painter’s progress all the more critical. If he finds his footing and shows he can perform as a mid-rotation starter, the front office might feel comfortable sticking with their current group. But if his struggles continue, Dave Dombrowski and his team may be forced to dip into their prospect capital to acquire another arm.
Andrew Painter is running out of time to lock down a rotation spot with the Phillies
Given his contract and long track record of success, most of this pressure falls on Nola. He’s no longer the perennial top-10 Cy Young finisher he once was, but expecting him to be a reliable No. 4 starter isn’t unreasonable.
That said, Nola’s peak years are clearly behind him. At 33, coming off a significant ankle injury, and with nearly 1,800 innings on his arm, any improvements from here are likely to be minor.
Painter, by contrast, is a rookie with a lively arm and immense untapped upside. Inconsistency has defined his debut season, reflected in his 6.21 ERA and 5.08 FIP. Still, he’s shown flashes of brilliance—like a three-start stretch in mid-May where he gave up just five runs over 17.1 innings.
His recent outings against the White Sox and Dodgers have been far less impressive, but the potential is clear. If he can simply deliver consistent quality starts and avoid meltdowns, the Phillies should feel secure enough in their rotation to focus their trade-deadline efforts on upgrading the lineup.
With Adolis García recently placed on the 60-day injured list only sharpening the team’s obvious need for a right-handed-hitting outfielder it’s not an overstatement to say Painter may be the most pivotal player for the Phillies to watch over the next month.
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