The Philadelphia Phillies endured a rough loss on Wednesday, and much of the blame falls squarely on Andrew Painter. Once viewed as an untouchable prospect, the young right-hander has struggled mightily in his initial big-league exposure, leaving the team in a difficult position. They can’t move him in a trade, nor can they afford to abandon hope. All that remains is to wait and hope he turns things around.
Selected 13th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Painter arrived in Philadelphia with considerable hype. The Florida native bolstered his reputation by posting an outstanding 1.56 ERA across three minor-league levels during his debut professional season. The organization envisioned him making an MLB impact as a 20-year-old in 2023.
Those plans were derailed, however, when Tommy John surgery forced him to miss the entire 2023 and 2024 minor-league seasons. He finally got his first taste of Triple-A action last year, but struggled mightily, finishing with a 5.40 ERA over 22 starts.
The Phillies chose to ride or die with their hopeful future ace, handing him the fifth starter role to open the current season. Alongside an aging Aaron Nola and a diminished Taijuan Walker, the club was placing a heavy burden on the back end of its rotation.
That gamble has backfired as predictably as many feared. Nola has stumbled to a 5.86 ERA, while Walker posted a disastrous 9.13 mark before being let go. Given their declining trajectories, the poor performances weren’t entirely shocking. But Painter still carries immense potential, which makes his rough outings all the more disheartening.
Andrew Painter is hurting the Phillies, and only he can turn it around
Painter has made 14 appearances for the Phillies, and few have offered much encouragement. There was the gritty outing against Arizona despite a migraine, but overall, he hasn’t looked like a big-league caliber pitcher. Over 65 innings, the 23-year-old has surrendered 51 earned runs, allowed 84 hits including 14 home runs walked 24 batters, and struck out just 53.
The promise that once made Painter a highly touted prospect has seemed to vanish since his surgery. His once-electric stuff, capable of overpowering hitters, has been replaced by flatter offerings that lack a reliable out-pitch.
His latest meltdown on Wednesday six earned runs in just two innings seems to have been the breaking point, at least for now, as he was optioned to Triple-A shortly after. Now the pressing question is: who takes his place?
The options at Lehigh Valley aren’t exactly inspiring, featuring journeymen like Alan Rangel, Tucker Davidson, and Bryse Wilson. Last year’s first-round pick, Gage Wood, has impressed at Double-A, but he has just 13 minor-league games under his belt and rushing him would be risky. The Phillies could look to the trade market for a fifth starter, but with over a month until the deadline, finding the right fit at a reasonable cost will be challenging.
On the trade front, some have floated the idea of dealing Painter himself for major-league help. Given the farm system’s thinness, he remains one of the team’s most valuable chips if they’re aiming for a big splash. However, his disastrous debut season has certainly hurt his trade stock, and moving him now would mean selling low. Such a move would be tough to justify, especially considering how highly regarded he was just a year or two ago.
So how does Andrew Painter rebuild his value? By performing well in the majors, of course. Unfortunately, the Phillies can’t afford to give him the leeway to figure things out at the big-league level while they’re in the thick of a playoff chase and can’t afford to concede games every time he pitches.
Why not let Painter work through his issues in the minors, then? Because there’s no reliable long-term replacement. Rangel, Wilson, Davidson, or any other fill-in would likely be more of a cosmetic fix than a true upgrade a fresh coat of paint on the same broken-down vehicle.
That’s the heart of the Phillies’ dilemma with Andrew Painter. Right now, there’s no clear path forward. They can’t trade him to strengthen the roster because his value has sunk too low, making a deal counterproductive. They can’t let him work through his struggles in the majors because he’s costing them winnable games. All they can really do is hope.
For now, the Phillies have pressed pause on Painter’s big-league stint, but the underlying issue remains. The only way out is for Painter to develop into the pitcher everyone believes he can be or at least a close version of that. The Phillies can’t solve this problem for him. Only Painter can.
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